$2.9B Bitcoin ETF Outflow, Bearish Futures Data Project More BTC Downside

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Introduction to Bitcoin’s Current Market Trends

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant downturn, sliding below $73,000 on Wednesday after briefly retesting the $79,500 level on Tuesday. This decline mirrors the drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index, which was driven by a weak sales outlook from chipmaker AMD (AMD US) and disappointing United States employment data. The current market sentiment is marked by fear of further Bitcoin price pressure, particularly as spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded over $2.9 billion in outflows across 12 trading days.

Bitcoin spot ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The average $243 million daily net outflow from the US-listed Bitcoin ETFs since Jan. 16 nearly coincides with Bitcoin’s rejection at $98,000 on Jan. 14. The subsequent 26% correction over three weeks triggered $3.25 billion in liquidations for leveraged long BTC futures. Unless buyers deposited additional margin, any leverage exceeding 4x has already been wiped out. This purging of highly leveraged buyers indicates a market correction, where the price is adjusting to remove speculative excesses.

Impact of Liquidations on the Market

Some market participants have blamed the recent crash on the lingering aftermath of the $19 billion liquidation on Oct. 10, 2025. That incident was reportedly triggered by a performance glitch in database queries at Binance exchange, resulting in delayed transfers and incorrect data feeds. The exchange acknowledged having technical issues during the sell-off and disbursed over $283 million in compensation to affected users. According to Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly, huge liquidations at Binance “could not get filled, but liquidation engines keep firing regardless. This caused market makers to get wiped out, and they were unable to pick up the pieces.” Qureshi added that the October 2025 crash did not permanently “break the market,” but noted that market makers “will need time to recover.”

Source: X/hosseeb

BTC Options Metrics and Market Sentiment

The analysis suggests that cryptocurrency exchanges’ liquidation mechanisms “are not designed to be self-stabilizing the way that TradFi mechanisms are (circuit breakers, etc.)” and instead focus solely on minimizing insolvency risks. Qureshi notes that cryptocurrencies are a “long series” of “bad things” happening, but historically, the market eventually recovers. To determine if professional traders flipped bearish after the crash, one should assess BTC options markets. During periods of stress, demand for put (sell) instruments surges, pushing the delta skew metric above the 6% neutral threshold. Excess demand for downside protection typically signals a lack of confidence from bulls.

BTC 30-day options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The BTC options delta skew reached 13% on Wednesday, a clear indication that professional traders are not convinced Bitcoin’s price has found a bottom at $72,100. This skepticism stems partly from fears that the tech sector could suffer from increased competition as Google (GOOG US) and AMD roll out proprietary artificial intelligence chips. Additionally, unrelated and unfounded rumors, such as a $9 billion Bitcoin sale by a Galaxy Digital customer in 2025 attributed to quantum computing risks, and speculation about Binance’s solvency, have contributed to the uncertainty. However, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research, denied those rumors, and current onchain metrics suggest that Bitcoin deposits at Binance remain relatively stable.

Conclusion and Next Steps

Given the current uncertainty in macroeconomic trends, many traders have opted to exit cryptocurrency markets. This shift makes it difficult to predict whether Bitcoin spot ETF outflows will continue to apply downward pressure on the price. As the market navigates these challenges, it’s essential for investors to stay informed and adapt to the changing landscape. For more information on the current state of Bitcoin and its implications, readers can visit Here.

Smart Tip for Readers

To better navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency market, consider diversifying your information sources to include reputable news outlets, academic research, and expert analysis. This will help you make more informed decisions and stay up-to-date on the latest developments in the field.

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