The recent ceasefire between the US and Iran has led to a surge in stock markets and Bitcoin, with the latter experiencing a 6% rally in less than four hours. This sudden increase caught traders off guard, resulting in a $280 million liquidation event in Bitcoin futures markets. However, despite this rally, Bitcoin derivatives suggest that sustainable bullish momentum above $80,000 may take longer to achieve.
Bitcoin’s high correlation with the S&P 500 futures indicates that the rally was largely driven by the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump’s announcement that Iran’s nuclear program will be deactivated in exchange for tariff and sanctions relief also contributed to the surge. Nevertheless, Bitcoin bears remain active, with US Vice President JD Vance describing the Iran ceasefire as a “fragile truce.” This uncertainty has led to persistent inflationary pressure and weak Bitcoin derivatives metrics.
S&P 500 futures (blue, left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (orange, right). Source: TradingView
Persistent Inflationary Pressure and Weak Bitcoin Derivatives Metrics
A sustainable de-escalation of the conflict would likely lead to lower oil prices and reduced inflationary pressure, potentially paving the way for expansionist monetary policies. However, the US Federal Reserve has remained reluctant to trim interest rates despite signs of a weakening job market. Traders who previously exited risk markets have changed their minds as the odds of a severe economic impact declined. While the $280 million in forced liquidations of bearish leveraged positions accelerated the rally, BTC derivatives positioning showed no major shifts.
Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass / Cointelegraph
Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest reached 593,930 BTC on Wednesday, up 2.5% from Tuesday. The lack of demand for bullish positions has pushed the Bitcoin futures annualized premium relative to regular spot markets below the neutral 4% threshold since late January.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas
Regulatory Hurdles and Bitcoin’s Future
Bitcoin bulls’ confidence had already been hit by the Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash, disappointment with regulation, and the lack of progress on the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The latest draft of the PARITY Act failed to include tax exemptions for small Bitcoin payments or deferred capital gains for mining. Additionally, David Sacks stepped down from his role as the White House AI and cryptocurrency czar on March 26. These regulatory hurdles may hinder the Bitcoin rally, and the “fragile truce” between the US and Iran leaves the odds of a correction to $68,000 wide open.
Bitcoin options put-to-call premium at Deribit, USD. Source: Laevitas
Smart Tip for Readers
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