As the new year begins, Americans are showing a slightly more optimistic outlook on their financial future, according to a recent survey by the New York Federal Reserve. The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations found that while consumers expect inflation to be higher in the short term, they are more hopeful about their overall financial situation.

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People hold shopping bags as they make their way through Herald Square on Dec. 11, 2025 in New York City.

Consumer Confidence on the Rise

The survey revealed that perceptions about current financial conditions and year-ahead expectations both improved, with a smaller share of Americans expecting a worsening financial situation and a larger share expecting an improved financial situation one year from now. However, there are also concerns about delinquency, with expectations deteriorating to the highest level since the start of the pandemic.

The perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the months ahead rose to 15.3%, the highest level since April 2020. This increase was most pronounced among individuals over the age of 60, those without a college degree, and those with annual household incomes below $50,000. Across all age and education levels, job loss expectations also worsened.

Job Security Concerns

“If you’re not sure about your own job security, it makes it hard to focus on any other financial goals,” said Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree. This sentiment is echoed by the data, which shows that delinquency rates increased across the board in December, according to the most recent U.S. Household Credit Report from Moody’s Analytics.

Delinquencies may continue to rise in the months ahead, the report said, “as increased joblessness strains household budgets.” This is a concern for many Americans, particularly those who are already struggling to make ends meet.

The K-Shaped Economy

In an increasingly bifurcated consumer economy, credit card debt widens the divide, according to Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. Roughly 175 million consumers have credit cards, and while some pay off the balance every month, about 60% of credit card users have revolving debt, according to the New York Fed.

“The K-shaped economy is an important part of the context,” Rossman said in an email. “With stocks and home prices at record levels, that’s benefiting the ~65% of Americans who own homes and the ~60% who own stocks, but not everyone is sharing in that.”

Conclusion

As the economy continues to evolve, it’s essential for consumers to stay informed and adapt to the changing landscape. For more information on the New York Fed’s consumer outlook, visit Here

Smart Tip for Readers

To better manage your finances and avoid delinquency, consider creating a budget that accounts for potential job loss or reduced income, and prioritize building an emergency fund to cover at least 3-6 months of living expenses.