US President Donald Trump addressed the nation from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on December 17, 2025, as seen in an image captured by Doug Mills of AFP via Getty Images.
The president’s address came amid falling approval ratings on inflation and the cost of living, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, which polled 1,000 U.S. adults in early December, finding that 66% disapproved of Trump’s handling of these issues, up from 62% in October.
Understanding Tax Refunds in 2026
As the holiday season brings financial pressures, many are looking ahead to the 2026 tax filing season, wondering what to expect from their refunds. According to Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy, “many will see larger refunds than in recent years” when filing their 2025 tax returns in 2026.
The Tax Foundation attributes this to several retroactive tax changes for 2025, including a bigger standard deduction, a more generous maximum child tax credit, a higher limit for the state and local tax deduction, a $6,000 tax break for seniors, and deductions for auto loan interest, tip income, and overtime pay. These changes reduced individual income taxes by $144 billion in 2025, but since the IRS did not adjust withholding tables, most taxpayers will receive the benefits all at once when they file their returns.
Who Will See a Bigger Refund
The size of one’s 2026 tax refund will depend on which provisions affect their individual situation. Provisions like the higher standard deduction, bigger child tax credit, and senior tax break are expected to impact many taxpayers, while others, such as deductions on tip and overtime income, will affect smaller groups.
Experts, including Alex Muresianu, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, note that for many, Trump’s legislation is an extension of the tax breaks enacted in 2017, meaning the basic structure of the tax code remains largely the same as it has been for the past eight years.
A note from Piper Sandler released on October 31 predicted “an exceptionally large refund season,” with middle- and upper-income taxpayers likely to benefit the most. As of October 17, the average refund for individual returns was $3,052 during the 2025 filing season, slightly up from $3,004 in 2024, according to the latest IRS data.
Expert Insights and Data
Experts emphasize the importance of understanding how the recent tax changes will impact individual situations, given the variability in who will see larger refunds. The data from the IRS and analyses from organizations like the Tax Foundation provide crucial insights into what taxpayers can expect in the 2026 filing season.
Smart Tip for Readers
To make the most of your tax refund, consider reviewing your withholding amounts to ensure you’re not overpaying taxes throughout the year, and plan ahead for how you’ll use your refund, whether it’s for savings, debt repayment, or essential expenses. For more information on the upcoming tax season and how recent legislation may affect your refund, visit Here
