Introduction to the Role of AI in US GDP Growth

The popular narrative that artificial intelligence (AI) is the primary driver of the US economy appears to be overstated, according to recent analyses. While AI has indeed reshaped market valuations and driven significant investments in data centers, its actual contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) growth may be smaller than initially thought.

Meta’s 5-gigawatt “Hyperion” data center, currently under construction in Richland Parish, Louisiana, is a prime example of the large investments being made in AI infrastructure. However, a report from MRB Partners US economic strategist Prajakta Bhide reveals that consumption was the most crucial driver of US GDP growth in 2025, with AI-related capital expenditures playing a secondary role.

Reevaluating the Impact of AI on GDP Growth

Bhide’s research suggests that AI’s contribution to GDP growth is often exaggerated due to the high import content of AI-related equipment. When adjusted for imports, the net average contribution of AI-related investments to real GDP growth is estimated to be between 40 and 50 basis points, or approximately 20-25% of real GDP growth between the first and third quarters of 2025.

Furthermore, Bhide notes that investments in software and computers were AI’s most significant contributions to GDP growth in 2025, rather than data centers, which often receive more attention. This nuanced understanding of AI’s role in the economy is essential for making informed decisions about future investments and policy initiatives.

Consumer Spending: The Primary Driver of Economic Expansion

Bhide’s research underscores the importance of consumer spending as a major driver of economic expansion. Despite slower income growth and rising wealth concentration among top US earners, Bhide expects resilient consumption to continue in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and a stable unemployment rate.

The US consumer’s continued strength is a crucial factor in the economy’s overall performance, and Bhide’s analysis provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between AI investments, consumer spending, and economic growth.

Looking Ahead: Support for a Resilient Economy

Bhide expects economic growth in 2026 to be supported by further AI investments, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a stabilization in the US unemployment rate. While she remains watchful of quarterly productivity statistics and job creation, her research suggests that the US economy is well-positioned for continued growth.

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Smart Tip for Readers

To better understand the impact of AI on the economy, it’s essential to consider the nuances of GDP growth and the role of consumer spending. By staying informed about the latest research and analysis, readers can gain a more accurate understanding of the complex factors driving economic expansion and make more informed decisions in their personal and professional lives.