Introduction to November’s Inflation Report

As the year draws to a close, Wall Street is eagerly awaiting the release of the November consumer price index (CPI) report, scheduled for Thursday. This report will be the first reading for the period since the record-setting U.S. government shutdown ended last month. The CPI tracks the average change in prices people pay for a range of goods and services, providing valuable insights into the state of the economy.

According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the report is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%. When excluding food and energy, core CPI is forecast to post an annual rate of 3.0%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has noted that the release “will not include 1-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing,” due to the cancellation of the October inflation report in late November.

Expert Insights and Expectations

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, believes that the psychological distinction between a 2% and 3% inflation rate will be crucial. While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, Torres is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each. He thinks that the range of possible outcomes for the headline could be between 2.9% and 3.1%.

Torres also believes that a 2.9% reading could offer some positive momentum in stocks heading into 2026 and potentially clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally. Additionally, he thinks it would have an impact on the interest rate outlook for next year, a period during which the Fed projects one rate cut.

Challenges in Interpreting the Report

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, notes that the release will not be a “clean” report due to the absence of month-over-month data and the timing of when the BLS began collecting November data. The government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, prompted the BLS to push back the November CPI report from its previously scheduled release date of Dec. 10.

Fernandez thinks that the overall theme will be that inflation is “remaining high” and not making its way back towards 2% like some anticipate. She emphasizes the need for more information before making a true statement about the long-term outlook, citing conflicting stories and uncertainty.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The November inflation report will be closely watched by investors and economists, as it will provide valuable insights into the state of the economy. While some experts anticipate a lower-than-expected inflation rate, others note that the report will not be without its challenges due to the government shutdown. As the year draws to a close, it remains to be seen how the economy will perform in the coming months.

For more information on the November inflation report, visit Here

Smart Tip for Readers

To better understand the impact of inflation on your personal finances, consider tracking your monthly expenses and adjusting your budget accordingly. By staying informed about economic trends and making informed financial decisions, you can navigate the complexities of inflation and make the most of your money.