The holiday season is approaching, and with it, the highly anticipated release of James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash. The prediction markets have already weighed in, pitting the film against Universal’s Wicked: For Good. To gain insight into the potential performance of Avatar 3, we analyzed box office and performance data from 17 different movie trilogies, including Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, and Despicable Me.<\/p>\n
The Kalshi market has set the line for the Rotten Tomatoes score of Avatar: Fire and Ash, with only a 41% chance that the score will resolve above 75%. This suggests that traders are pricing in a mild dose of franchise fatigue, despite the consistent scores of the first two films. The original Avatar scored 82%, while the second film scored 79%, indicating a potential drop in score for the third installment.<\/p>\n
The first two Avatar films maintained remarkable consistency in their Rotten Tomatoes scores, with the original scoring 82% and the second scoring 79%. However, the Kalshi market is pricing in a potential drop in score for the third film, with only a 41% chance of scoring above 75%. This suggests that traders are cautious about the potential for franchise fatigue.<\/p>\n
The market currently suggests that the domestic opening for Avatar 3 is heavily skewed towards the lower end of expectations, with a 43% chance of opening below $90 million and a 36% chance of opening between $90-101 million. This is in contrast to the second film, which saw a 174% increase in opening weekend box office compared to the original.<\/p>\n
The table below shows the predicted opening weekend box office for Avatar 3 compared to other 2025 films:<\/p>\n
| \n | 2025 Film<\/th>\n | Weekend End Date<\/th>\n | Opening Weekend<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1<\/td>\n | A Minecraft Movie<\/td>\n | April 6, 2025<\/td>\n | $162,753,003<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2<\/td>\n | Wicked: For Good<\/td>\n | November 23, 2025<\/td>\n | $147,004,640<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3<\/td>\n | Lilo & Stitch<\/td>\n | May 25, 2025<\/td>\n | $146,016,175<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4<\/td>\n | Superman<\/td>\n | July 13, 2025<\/td>\n | $125,021,735<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5<\/td>\n | The Fantastic Four: First Steps<\/td>\n | July 27, 2025<\/td>\n | $117,644,828<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6<\/strong><\/td>\n| Avatar: Fire and Ash<\/strong><\/td>\n | December 22, 2025<\/strong><\/td>\n | TBC<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 7<\/td>\n | Zootopia 2<\/td>\n | November 30, 2025<\/td>\n | $100,262,540<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 8<\/td>\n | Jurassic World Rebirth<\/td>\n | July 6, 2025<\/td>\n | $92,016,065<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 9<\/td>\n | Captain America: Brave New World<\/td>\n | February 16, 2025<\/td>\n | $88,842,603<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 10<\/td>\n | How to Train Your Dragon<\/td>\n | June 15, 2025<\/td>\n | $84,633,315<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | 11<\/td>\n | The Conjuring: Last Rites<\/td>\n | September 7, 2025<\/td>\n | $84,006,121<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?<\/h3>\nPolymarket has created a head-to-head between the two biggest December releases: Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. The market is asking the simple question: Which film will have the bigger domestic opening weekend?<\/p>\n The table below shows the predicted outcome:<\/p>\n
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