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Bitcoin valuation models. Source: Jurrien Timmer\/X<\/p>\nNew analysis by Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may face a critical price point in 2026, which could be a “do-or-die” moment for the cryptocurrency. According to Timmer, Bitcoin’s four-year price cycles and bear markets remain relevant, and the latest power law analysis indicates that 2026 may see a BTC price support showdown with $65,000 as the key level.<\/p>\n
The power law attempts to give price a “fair value,” and history shows that trips toward the support line have often accompanied long-term bottoms. For now, the line in the sand for Bitcoin is $65k (previous high), and below that $45k. The latter is the power law trendline, which could become a do-or-die line in the sand for Bitcoin if it consolidates for the next year.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin power law data. Source: Jurrien Timmer\/X<\/p>\n
The analysis called into question whether or not Bitcoin is still subject to four-year price cycles. For Timmer, halving cycles are impacting price less and less with time, but bear markets will still happen. Responding, executive David Eng agreed that bear markets are set to remain a feature of Bitcoin as a maturing asset. “The idea that Bitcoin has ‘graduated’ into a no-bear-market S-curve price regime misunderstands how prices form,” he argued.<\/p>\n
Eng added that Bitcoin now faces longer price cycles and lower overall volatility. Bitcoin is a scarce fixed asset inside the financial system, not a standalone S-curve like the internet. Bitcoin valuation models. Source: Jurrien Timmer\/X<\/p>\n
As Cointelegraph reported, four-year cycles became a topic of debate among the Bitcoin community after 2025 finished in the red. BTC\/USD has never ended a post-halving year lower than when it began, and reactions include dropping the cycle theory altogether. Eng, however, predicts that “compressed” power law readings demand an upward relief rally. “Bitcoin isn\u2019t stalling it\u2019s coiling below its long-term growth law, and history says resolution comes by price catching up, not the law giving way,” he told X followers this weekend.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin still obeys a single power law with extraordinary stability (R\u00b2 \u2248 0.96) across 15+ years; bubbles and crashes are oscillations, not regime changes. Spot (~$90.5k) is ~25% below\u2026<\/p>\n
To better understand Bitcoin’s price cycles and potential future movements, it’s essential to stay informed about the latest power law analysis and trends, and consider multiple sources before making any investment decisions. For more information, visit Here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Introduction to Bitcoin’s Price Cycles New analysis by Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may face a critical price point in 2026, which could be a “do-or-die” moment for the cryptocurrency. According to Timmer, Bitcoin’s four-year price cycles and bear markets remain relevant, and the latest power law […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1697,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=1200\/https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-01\/019bad7b-a5fe-7211-9dbb-bea625570df8.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1696","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-crypto"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1696","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1696"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1696\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1698,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1696\/revisions\/1698"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1697"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sosahustle.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}